I don’t know when the rainy season started this year, but it seems to be over shortly. And the heat wave has already come and heat stroke alert has been issued in various places. Let’s take care of each other’s physical condition and get over the hot summer.
By the way, history, life and daily life and the world of sports such as baseball and golf are accompanied by “what ifs”. To put it bluntly, when looking back on everything that happened, it is a cycle of “what ifs” or “if it were like this”. But you can’t wear “two hats”. And past events remain as facts, but nobody knows what the future holds. It is exactly that “nobody knows what may happen tomorrow” and we can predict or guess using computer and ＡＩ but we can’t say for sure. It is exactly “only god knows”. Everything becomes an established fact over “time” and accumulates, and is moving on to the next unforeseen moment. Nothing is more mysterious than time. And we can’t stop time and can’t turn it back. It is exactly that “it is too late to be sorry”. Taking this into consideration, we must cherish every piece of our life.

■■What I have recently thought and focused on:
■The attempted assassination of former President Trump and the future:
The attempted assassination of former President Trump occurred in Butler, Pennsylvania on July 13 (local time). It is said that at that moment, by chance, Mr. Trump turned slightly to the right and a direct hit to his head was avoided. And he injured his ear, but there seems to be no hindrance to future activities. It was a miracle. It is certain that not only the history of the United States but also world history would have changed significantly depending on his safety. This is the first “what if” of this incident. And the next “what if” is that the perpetrator is ①20-year-old youth living in the local area ②white ③was registered as a Republican. If any one of ①, ②,or ③ belonged to a different category, it would have provoked another serious problem. It may be needless to say, but Mr. Trump is extremely reluctant to regulate guns, and receiving tremendous support from the National Rifle Association of America that has a significant influence on U.S. politics.
By the way, needless to say, this incident will have a huge impact on the presidential election held on November 6 this year. The modern era is the age of video and it spreads on social media immediately. When witnessing Mr. Trump screaming to “Fight! Fight!” raising a fist with the Stars and Stripes in the background right after he was shot, I think that Americans got the impression that he is “a strong person who loves their country” beyond just “liking or disliking” him. This video was more convincing than tens of thousands of speeches and countless words. By the way, after that, his remarks have changed an aggressive stance abusing the opponent as in the past to a restrained one. That will increase popularity and broaden the support base as “a calm and resolute person” essential for President of the United States in times of crisis. On the other hand, Mr. Trump has already made various statements based on the premise that he would win the presidential election. Of course, nobody knows what the outcome of the election will be until the very end, but it is true that both the business world of the United States and foreign countries are cozying up to him.
Re above, I have expressed my feelings through this incident, not taking Mr. Trump’s side.
On the other hand, as I mentioned in my blog on March 8 this year, the biggest rival for President Biden is that “he is old” from the beginning. He is about one month younger than me, but will be 82 in November this year. On the other hand, former President Trump was 78 in June this year and it is truly “an old man confrontation”. Incidentally, the average life expectancy in the United States is about 76 (and the average life expectancy in Japan is about 84). Needless to say, the responsibility of President of the United States is heavier than you can imagine, and his decision has an effect on the world. Mr. Biden seems to have a strong desire “not to lose Mr. Trump” no matter what, but considering the mistakes during the recent TV debate, frequent misstatements, dissent within the Democratic Patry and so on, it is undeniable that he is at a disadvantage.
On the other hand, domestic politics in Japan is still in a drifting state without knowing where it is going. Prime Minister Kishida’s term of office for President of the Liberal Democratic Party is the end of September this year. According to the party rules, the presidential election is supposed to be done “within 10 days of the expiration of the term of office” and a voting date will be set from September 20~29 this year. It is not known at this point who will be chosen as the next Prime Minister.
By the way, if Mr. Trump is re-elected, it seems to me that he will become more protectionist than his tenure up to 4 years ago. The outlook for support to Ukraine remains uncertain. Not only in Japan but also in Europe (the NATO countries), things can’t go on as they have been. Incidentally, the United States is the world’s largest oil producer and food producer. The United State can be self-sufficient and is a country that can manage well even if it becomes isolated. On the other hand, there is no natural resources including energy in Japan, and what has supported our economic development up to today is “globalization” and “free trade”. Our defense budget has been also protected under the security treaty with the United States, and we have managed to keep it within 1 % of GDP over many years. Taking this into consideration, “the United States can manage without Japan, but Japan can’t manage without the United States” is a fate and this is the cold reality. Therefore, a good relationship between Japan and the United States is essential for the existence of Japan. In the past four years, Japanese government has maintained a comparatively good and stable relationship, thanks in part to President Biden’s personality. However, “chemistry” is very important to get along with a person who has a strong personality and a strong desire to be a dictator like Mr. Trump. In this regard, the late Prime Minster Abe built a bond so strong that he could sometimes offer the candid advice. Key qualities that are considered important for the next Prime Minister of Japan may be the skill and wisdom “to come to terms with him and gain an understanding of Japan’s position and policies”.

■The Chinese economy continues to be in a difficult situation:
The Chinese Communist Party held the third plenary session of the 20th Central Committee that is an important meeting in Beijing from July 15 to 18. This meeting is a forum for discussing economic policies from a medium- and long-term perspective. The Chinese   economy has been experiencing prolonged domestic demand stagnation (savings-oriented) accompanied by real estate recession now, and structural issues like declining birthrate and aging population and so on are emerging. The real GDP growth rate from April to June this year published on July 15 was a 4.7 % increase compared to the same period last year and the growth rate decreased from a 5.3 % increase from January to March. Incidentally, the real GDP growth rate in Japan from April to June is not published, but the revised figures from January to March was annual decrease of 0.7 %. Compared to this, the Chinese economy is going well at first glance, but growth is on a downward trend, peaking at 10.61 % in 2010. And the contents of the real GDP growth rate from April to June are that production and exports drive growth but domestic demand is sluggish and leads to dumping exports of surplus products (EV, steel products, solar light panels and so on) because of overproduction, and Western countries are becoming more vigilant. And the consumer price index from January to June remains a 0.1 % increase compared to the same period last year, and the Chinese economy is in a situation where they can’t dispel concerns about deflation that Japan has been struggling with for many years.