There is only one week left in February. In Kansai, after a series of warm weather that feel like the arrival of spring continued, I have heard the phrase “coldest day of this winter” twice. It is still not quite the time for cold for three days and then warm for four days. And in addition to heavy snowfall areas, record-breaking snowfall has also been occurring in flatlands. I think the time and effort required for removing snow and shoveling snow off the roof is a great burden for the elderly. I hope they are careful enough to avoid any accidents.
By the way, in Japan, it was once said that “safety (or security) and water are free”, but now, those words have become obsolete and some burden is necessary. And crime is increasing and criminal offences have increased for three consecutive years up to last year. Investment frauds and romance frauds through social media symbolizing the IT era and illegal part-time job have been increasing rapidly, and last year, “serious crimes” such as murder, arson, sexual crime and so on also approached around 15,000 cases increased by 18 % compared to the previous year. Due to internationalization, solar cable theft and shoplifting at the drugstore committed by foreign group have become more noticeable. The control system is unable to keep up with the increasing and diversifying crimes, and the public’s “sense of security” is getting worse. I feel nostalgic for “the myth of safety” which is now a thing of the past.

■■What I have recently thought and focused on:
■President Trump’s words and actions are causing a stir:
He is causing controversy with his unpredictable actions and statements, but I think that his toughest adversaries are “the struggle against aging (or time)” that comes with his age (78) and “rekindling inflation and rise in interest rates” brought by a series of policies such as tariff and various deregulations. The term of office for the U.S. president is constitutionally limited to no more than two terms (eight years). He had been the president for four years from 2017 to 2021, and unless amending the constitution, the current four-year term will be the end. Among two toughest adversaries, “the struggle against aging” is incredibly difficult, and it has been proven in former President Biden’s case. The role of the U.S. president is incredibly severe and hard.
By the way, the U.S. Congress is a bicameral legislature consisting of the Senate and the House of Representatives. The Senate has 100 seats, with each of the 50 states being allocated 2 senators each, and the term of a senator is six years, with one-third of the Senate being up for reelection every two years. And the House of Representatives has 435 seats and House representatives are allocated to each state in proportion to the population, and all are up for reelection every two years. The Senate has the authority to confirm presidential appointments, approve treaties, and conduct impeachment trials of the president. On the other hand, the House of Representatives has the exclusive power to initiate budget proposals and the authority to conduct impeachment trials of the president the same as the Senate. At present, the Republican Party holds the presidency and a majority in both the Senate and the House of Representatives. It is said to be a state of triple red (the Republican Party’s color), and the president can implement policies almost as he pleases. To put it bluntly, the brakes are not functioning.
However, in the United States, elections of Senators and Representatives (midterm elections) are held at the halfway point, exactly two years after the presidential elections, which are held every four years. Depending on the results, the balance of power in the Congress will change. Incidentally, at present, the Republican Party holds 53 seats in the Senate, while the Democratic Party holds 47 seats. The House of Representatives are evenly divided with a narrow margin of 220 to 215. Based on past performance, the president’s ruling party tends to lose in the midterm elections. If that is the case, for instance, if the Republican Party falls below a majority in the Senate, the president will not be able to create the budget as he wishes. In other words, midterm elections serve as a referendum on the president’s performance over the first two years in office. Therefore, if President Trump does not achieve visible results soon, he will become “a lame duck” during the last two years of his term. The battle for the midterm elections has already begun. Incidentally, according to recent public opinion poll, the response stating that it would “be too dangerous” to further expand Mr. Trump’s powers as president has reached 65 %.
By the way, President Trump renamed the Gulf of Mexico to “the Gulf of America” by executive order. Following this, he suggests that “he wants to buy Greenland” or “he takes back the Panama Canal”, and he is stirring up controversy. He forced “renaming to the Gulf of America” forward, but I hear that there is no guarantee that the world will follow. Such statements have been met with the accusations of “imperialism” or “the same as Russia”. But on second thought, the underlying concern behind all of these statements is his wariness about China’s expanding influence. When looking at Greenland, an autonomous territory within the Kingdom of Denmark, on a glove, it nears the center where the Russian and American and Canadian camps face off across the Arctic. The area is about 6 times larger than Japan and 85 % is covered in ice. It is said that Greenland is rich in rare earth and other mineral resources.
China has set its sights on that, and it can be inferred that there is an intention to quietly advance “the Ice Silk Road” project and to establish it as a pro-China state.
On the other hand, 5 % of the world’s maritime trade volume passes through the Panama Canal, and especially in the United States, which is the largest user country, it accounts for about 40 % of the container transportation volume nationwide. However, the ports at the two exits on the Pacific and Atlantic sides of the Panama Canal, a vital maritime traffic hub, are under the management of Hong Kong-based companies, and virtually China holds the operating rights. Therefore, the movements of not only U.S. cargo ships but also naval vessels are constantly monitored, and there is a risk that the canal may be closed at the direction of China during an emergency situation.
For these reasons described above, these two matters are very important for the national security strategy, and there is some truth in President Trump’s claim. But it is believed that excessively hasty and reckless behavior such as hinting at the use of force and words and actions that are almost like intimidation are difficult to gain understanding from the international community. Recent Ukraine ceasefire negotiations are the same. What I feel through his series of words and actions is that these are “anxiety” about “the struggle against aging (or time)” and toward “midterm elections”.

■President Trump’s mistrust towards Japanese companies:
Japan-U.S. Summit Meeting was held in Washington on January 8 in Japan time. The results were initially regarded as “a significant achievement”, but due to subsequent President Trump’s tariff policies, the intervention in the U.S. Steel acquisition by Nippon Steel and so on, those achievements have slightly faded away.
By the way, more than one year has passed since the announcement of the U.S. Steel acquisition plan by Nippon Steel. During this time, it was originally supposed to be a private business transaction, but due to the competition for union votes (USW, 850,000 votes) during the presidential election, it has turned into a political issue. Now, lawsuits are being fought by not only the parties directly involved but also by funds, resulting in a chaotic legal battle. It is a situation where the future can’t be seen. President Trump has expressed his opposition to this case from the beginning. He still “permits investment in U.S. Steel” but “does not permit ownership (holding 51 % of the shares)” of the company. This is essentially a political intervention the same as former President Biden.
I think this reflects a deep-rooted mistrust towards Japanese companies. Its origins go back to around 1990. At that time, Japan’s industrial sector was buoyed by an unprecedented bubble economy, and the arrogance such as “the land value inside the Yamanote Line could buy the entire United States” was prominent. In October 1989, Mitsubishi Estate, a major real estate company in Japan, purchased 51 % of the shares of RGI Corporation, that owned Rockefeller Center Building in the center of Manhattan, for about 120 billion yen at that time, and this incurred strong resentment from Americans. However, after that, the management came to a standstill along with the collapse of the bubble economy, and Mitsubishi Estate sold the said building at a low price in May 1995. I feel that Mr. Trump, who was in his 40 s at that time and involved in the real estate industry, witnessed such a series of events, and came to have a deep-rooted mistrust towards Japanese companies. The purpose and objective of U.S. Steel acquisition by Nippon Steel this time are different from the previous case, but considering that U.S. Steel is a steel manufacturer, which is the core industry of the nation, and one of the prestigious companies representing the United States, I think it is not easy to persuade President Trump.