The scale of the first earthquake occurred in the southern part of Turkey before dawn on February 6 was a magnitude 7.8. Its energy was about 22 times more than the Great Hanshin Earthquake, and if it is converted to the Japan Meteorological Agency seismic intensity scale, it is said that the maximum seismic intensity of 7 occurred in some parts. Besides, a magnitude 7.5 aftershock occurred 9 hours after the first earthquake, and the damage was even more extensive. And up to about 4 meters strike-slip which is about 4 times more than the Great Hanshin Earthquake arose, and it is said that this is the biggest inland earthquake. As a result, the death toll is over 43 thousand and the fourth-highest number in the world in the 21 st century, and further increase is expected in the future. In the disaster area there is a concern about deterioration of security in addition to severe cold below zero. Japan Disaster Relief team and medical teams are being dispatched, and transportation of medical materials and so on is in place.
It could happen to Japan which is considered to be the world’s most disaster-prone country. I think that we should always have awareness of disaster prevention and disaster mitigation, and prepare a minimum of disaster prevention goods preparing for a crisis.

■■There were a few interesting articles this week.
■Preliminary figures of GDP growth rate in Japan from October to December last year:
When annualized, GDP growth rate in the October-December quarter last year released by the Cabinet Office on February 14 was 0.6 %. Positive growth is the first time in two quarters. Real GDP growth rate in 2022 is 1.1 % compared to the previous year and two consecutive years positive growth, and it shows that normalization of the economy from corona disaster is progressing slowly.
By the way, the United States Department of Commerce released preliminary figures of real GDP growth rate in the October-December quarter last year on January 26. The size of economy in the United States is 4 times more than Japan. Nevertheless, why is it published 15 days earlier than Japan? Is there a difference in how the basic numbers are collected or a difference of government digitalization progress just as I thought?
Incidentally, preliminary figures of real GDP growth rate in the October-December quarter last year in the United States was 2.9 % on an annualized quarter-on-quarter basis. The United States is continuing steady economic growth even under high inflation.
■The current state of the economy from the point of view of logistics:
Logistics volume or cargo movement depends on production and consumption. As far as I can see indicators that show the current state, I can’t realize positive growth in Japan for the first time in two years. And international economy is also in a tough situation, due to an influence of interest rate hikes to control inflation, geopolitical risks such as Ukraine problem and the United States-China relations and so on, and unclearness of China’s economic outlook and so on.
①Movement of marine containers from Asia to the United States
According to Datamyne, a research company in the United States, transportation volume of marine containers from Asia to the United States in December last year was about 1.31 million TEU (twenty-foot equivalent unit) decreased by 23 % compared to the previous year. Since August was lower than the previous year for the first time in two years, the rate of decline continues to expand, and it has been down about 20 % since October. Transportation volume through the year of 2022 was about 19.65 million TEU decreased by 4 % compared to the previous year, and it was the first decrease in three years. It reflects a decrease in movement toward Europe and the United States. Transportation volume from China with a high percentage of consumer goods has been down 30 % compared to the previous year since October, and is pushing down the whole. I hear that the fare has also dropped sharply to 80 % cheaper than it was one year ago at its peak. It is a very different state from the year before last. Moreover, because new ships enter service one after another this year, it is going to be even tougher due to oversupply.
②Movement of international air cargo
Export volume of air cargo from Japan in December last year announced by Japan Air cargo Forwarders Association was about 75 thousand tons decreased by 24 % compared to the same month previous year, and the volume through the year of 2022 decreased by 13 % compared to the previous year, and it was the first decrease in two years. Incidentally, the main causes of the decrease in December are that export to the United States decreased by 27 % and export to Europe decreased by 19%.
③Crude steel production in the world and in Japan
Global crude steel production volume in 2022 was about 1.88 billion tons decreased by 4.2 % compared to the previous year, and lower than the previous year for the first time in seven years. Reduced demand in China that accounts for 50 % of the world’s production and decline in automotive production in Japan due to semiconductor shortage affected. Production volume in Japan which is the third in the world was 89.2 million tons deceased by 7.4 %.
④Transportation volume of domestic cargo Transportation volume of domestic cargo through the year of 2022 was about 200 million tons decreased by 3 % compared to the previous year, and lower than the previous year for the first time in two years. Steel decreased by 8 %, and fuels such as coal decreased by 11 %.
⑤Significant decrease of export of containerboard
Export volume in December last year fell to 3 years and 3 months low, because demand was in a bad way around China that is a major export destination. The volume through the year of 2022 increased only by 1% compared to the previous year, and it is a very different state from 2021 in which it increased by 21 %, and there seems to be no sign of recovery. Movement of containerboard is one of the indicators that reflects the state of cargo movement.
⑥Shipment of ready-mixed concrete
Shipment in December last year was about 6.55 million cubic meters decreased by 3.9 % compared to the same month previous year. It is said that public demand which accounts for more than 30 % of total shipment was negative for 21 consecutive months. The volume through the year of 2022 decreased by 2.5 % compared to the previous year, and was lower than the previous year for 4 consecutive years.
⑦Trucking transport
Preliminary demand has occurred quite a bit since October, because there was a rush of price increases around food product, and it seems to have been reflected in cargo movement. According to an estimate by NX Logistics Research Institute and Consulting, cargo movement from January to March this year will be “on a weak tone”. Fare will “rise slowly”, but seems to be not enough to cover rising costs such as fuel costs, vehicle costs, maintenance costs, labor costs and so on. It is expected that surrounding environment of truck freight transportation industry is going to be tougher, due to introduction of overtime extra wage from April this year, 2024 issue or working hours regulations, labor shortage and aging around drivers and hiring difficulties, repayment start of zero and zero loan which is without collateral and interest used by 40 % of business operators and so on. Reflecting such severe situations, bankruptcies are recently rising in the transportation industry.

≪P.S.≫ Interactive “chat GPT”, Generative Pre-trained Transformer, of Open AI which is a newly-formed company in the United States developing AI, artificial intelligence, has been a global topic recently. I hear that if I ask a question it replies in writing like a natural conversation with humans. Microsoft has immediately published “Bing”, AI-powered search engine strengthening the said function. It is a serious situation for Google where search department accounts for most revenue. It seems that competition of interactive AI development will intensify.
I have just bought Alexa, AI acoustic recognition service, which does not have this much performance. I am having a lot of fun. Isn’t it good to dispel loneliness especially for elderly people living alone?