Happy New Year, everyone. During this New Year, some regions experienced heavy snowfall and it was serious in those areas, but the Hanshin area where I live was blessed with calm and fine weather. I sincerely hope that this year will be peaceful and calm.
By the way, on New Year’s Day, I made my annual visit to the nearby shrine for the first shrine visit of the year, and on January 2, I went to Nara for the first time in a while on a day trip. At 10 a.m., I took the special limited express “Mahoroba” from JR Osaka station, and it took just under an hour to reach JR Nara station. After arriving, I headed to the Nara Hotel located within Nara Park. This hotel was designed by Kingo Tatsuno, an architect representing the Meiji era, and it was founded in 1909. I enjoyed a New Year’s French course while having a taste for wine in the main dining room (Mikasa). Incidentally, the piano that Dr. Einstein played when he visited in 1935 is in this hotel.  After the meal, I headed to Yakushiji Temple, paid my respect to the national treasure East Pagoda and the national treasure principal image of the Main Hall (Yakushi Nyorai, Nikko Bosatsu, and Gakko Bosatsu standing statue) and then received a Goma fire ritual for protection against evil before heading home. And the annual Kansai Economic Federation New Year’s celebration party (attended by about 500 people) was held on January 9, and this year, as the zodiac man of the year, I received a protective arrow, and gave the toast on behalf of those born in the Year of the Horse (photo attached).
Well, this year is “the Year of the Horse” and it is my seventh “zodiac man of the year”. Furthermore, this year is “the Year of Fire Horse”, which occurs once every 60 years. In Japan, there is a saying that “women born in the Year of Fire Horse have a fiery temperament”, and the tendency to avoid having children is clearly evident in the statistics. For your information, the number of births in the previous Year of Fire Horse (1966) was 1.36 million, down 0.46 million from the previous year, but it recovered to 1.93 million (an increase of 0.57 million from the previous year) the following year. On the other hand, in recent years, the number of births in Japan has fallen below 0.70 million per year, and the population continues to decline.
Even though times have changed, I hope that superstitions will have no influence.
Next, let’s move on to another topic. At the first auction of the fish market in Toyosu, Tokyo on January 5, a 243 kg bluefin tuna from Oma, Aomori prefecture, was reportedly sold for a record-high 510 million yen. Even so, the price of a single tuna being three to four times the average price of a new condominium in Tokyo’s 23 wards last year, and more than 100 times the average annual income of a Japanese person, makes me wonder what on earth is going on in the world. It seems that the main purpose of the winning bidder is to provide a topic (for publicity), but the recent trend of “money is everything”, widening inequalities, and declining ethics feel somewhat wrong to me. Mrs. Takaichi, please do something about this!

■■What I have recently thought and focused on:
■Top 10 risks of the year pointed out by Eurasia Group:
This year, the global economy is likely to remain steady for the time being, despite the lingering effects of Trump’s tariffs. The OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development) predicts that this year’s global economic growth rate will be 2.9%, down 0.3 points from the previous year. The United States is forecasted at about 1.7%, the Eurozone including Germany and France at about 1.2%, and Japan at about 0.9%. And regarding China, there is still no clear path out of the real estate slump, and the growth rate is expected to remain at 4.4%.By the way, the U.S. research firm Eurasia Group, which specializes in analyzing international situation, announced “the world’s top 10 risks” for the year on January 5. According to this, 1) Political revolution in the United States 2) “Electric Nation” China 3) Trump’s version of the Monroe Doctrine 4) Europe under siege 5) Russia’s second front 6) American-style state capitalism 7) China’s deflation 8) An AI that eats its users all 9) The zombification of the USMCA (the Agreement of the United States, Mexico, and Canada) 10) Weaponization of water.
For your information, the last year’s top 5 predictions were as follows. 1) The deepening confusion of a G-zero (non-polarized) world: A leadership vacuum among major powers 2) Trump’s rule 3) The U.S.-China breakdown 4) Trumponomics 5) Russia remains a rogue state. As usual, most of the risks are directly or indirectly related to U.S. President Trump’s policies and qualities, and it seems that the world will once again be shaken by his words and actions this year.
■The U.S. military carried out a military operation against Venezuela:
In the early hours of January 3, the United States launched ground attacks on Caracas, the capital of Venezuela, South America, and other locations using the Army’s elite “Delta Force” and the Air Force’s special operations unit, the “Night Stalkers”. It has been reported that the Venezuela’s anti-American leftist President Maduro was detained, transferred to New York, and placed in a detention center in the city. President Maduro was indicted in 2020 under the first Trump administration for charges including bringing drugs into the United States, and his trial has begun as a criminal defendant.
In addition, in 1979, when I was working in New York, I visited Caracas, the capital of Venezuela, just once and stayed for three days. It is about a five-hour flight south from New York. I went to Venezuela for market research on the instructions of the company I was working for at the time. And I visited Maracaibo on a day trip with an expatriate at a trading company, flying about one hour from Caracas. Around Lake Maracaibo, where this area is located, there were some of the world’s largest oil fields, with chimneys burning off associated gas, towering with flames. And there were checkpoints everywhere to guard against attacks by far-left guerrillas, and each time, I was surrounded by several soldiers who resembled the famous revolutionary Che Guevara, and it was truly weird when they pointed their machine guns at me and questioned who I was. I remember feeling relieved when I returned to Caracas.
At that time, Venezuela was a democratic country, benefiting from the surge in oil prices, and Caracas was so rich that it was called “the Paris of South America”. And during my stay, I enjoyed the country’s specialty rum and meat dishes while using my broken Spanish.
By the way, it seems that the recent U.S. operation had been closely planned for quite some time, and the U.S. government, having realized that warnings and negotiations were getting nowhere, decided to take military action. The United States is claiming legitimacy, but it goes without saying that countries like Russia and China, which have sought to strengthen ties with Venezuela, are criticizing, and voices from neighboring countries and around the world are raising concerns about violations of international law. But this military action by the United States is in line with the 2025 NSS (National Security Strategy) announced last December. In other words, it is part of a basic strategy that prioritizes U.S. national interests (Trump Monroe Doctrine has been recently renamed the Donroe Doctrine) and focuses on dealing with “the Western Hemisphere”, mainly Latin America. However, it can be said that this military action has made it difficult to deny the legitimacy of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the potential future invasion of Taiwan by China. Considering this, I think especially China is secretly chuckling to itself.
In addition, as announced, if President Trump’s visit to China this April takes place and the détente policy continues, even superficially, through the deal, the Takaichi administration, which gave China an opportunity to exploit with its remarks on a “Taiwan contingency” in the Diet, will be placed in a difficult position regarding relations with China. China is expected to further intensify its offensive toward neighboring countries.
■Last year, the number of deaths from traffic accidents was the lowest on record at 2,547:
According to the National Police Agency, last year, the number of deaths from traffic accidents nationwide decreased by 116 compared to the previous year, totaling 2,547, the lowest since statistics began in 1948. This is an 85% decrease compared to the worst record of 16,765 in 1970. The factors are believed to include safe driving, particularly the strict enforcement of the ban on drunk driving, as well as the significant role played by elderly drivers voluntarily surrendering their licenses.
In addition, of the 2,547 deaths, 1,423 were elderly people aged 65 and over (90 fewer than the previous year), accounting for 56% of the total. And the bottom three prefectures were Kanagawa (139), Tokyo (134) and Hokkaido (129). The lowest numbers were in Tottori and Shimane (17 each).
For your information, deaths from traffic accidents in the United States is also on the decline, but still, nearly 40,000 people die each year.