According to the announcement from the Meteorological Agency, the average temperature in Japan from June to August this year was 2.36 degrees higher than the normal and exceeded that of 2023 and 2024, which were the highest on record. I feel that “it really was like that” intuitively. “The double high pressure” that covered the Japanese islands is pointed out as a factor of the record-breaking heat wave. It seems that this harsh lingering summer heat will continue even after entering September, and the Weather Attribution Center (WAC) made up of researchers analyzes that this abnormal heat would not have occurred without global warming.
And due to the recent extreme heat and warm winters, various types of stick bugs eating rice and fruits in rice fields and orchards across various regions are occurring in large numbers, and there are concerns about the harvest yield.
On the other hand, this year’s pacific saury seems to be thicker and more magnificent than usual. I also ate pacific saury for the first time this year the other day, and it was very delicious, with a size and fat content that I have not seen recently. There was a senryu in the Asahi Shimbun’s senryu column on September 4 about “receiving the small autumn from the fatty pacific saury”. Incidentally, it seems that large pacific saury is available until the beginning of October and since then, the fishing grounds shifts from off the eastern coast of Hokkaido to off the coast of Sanriku, leading to an increase in the number of thin pacific saury. Please hurry up!

■■What I have recently thought and focused on:
■The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit and the 80th ceremony of the victory of the anti-Japanese war were held in China:
The SCO summit was held at the invitation of President Xi Jinping in Tianjin, China from August 31 to September 1. This organization was established in 2001 under the leadership of China and Russia, and currently, it is composed of ten countries, including China, Russia, India, Iran, Pakistan, and Central Asian countries such as Kazakhstan. It accounts for about a quarter of the world’s GDP (5% at the time of establishment) and about half of the world’s population. It was noteworthy that Indian Prime Minister Modi attended the summit for the first time in seven years. India and China have had border issues for many years, and their cold relationship has continued. Behind this visit, there is the backlash against the U.S. imposing a 50% tariff on India’s import crude oil from Russia as a form of sanction. China and India are considering the resumption of direct flights, which have been suspended since the border dispute in 2020. It is unclear whether the two countries will reach a full-fledged restoration of relations, but depending on future trends, it could potentially impact on the unity of the QUAD (Quadrilateral Security Dialogue). What can be inferred from this movement in India is that the centrifugal force of many countries distancing themselves from the United States is strengthening due to Trump’s tariff, and on the other hand, China is increasing its centripetal force as the flagbearer of BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) and the Global South (mainly emerging countries and developing countries in the southern part of the world). How will the U.S. government plan to respond to these global movements in the future? Depending on that, it may have a significant impact on Japan in terms of politics, economy, and security.
By the way, due to the slowdown in demand caused by the economic recession in China and the decrease in exports to the United States (due to tariffs and regulations), China is dumping exports of an excessive range of products (steel, textiles, furniture, home appliances, solar panels, automobiles, and so on), and friction is occurring in various parts of the world, including Europe, Asia, and South America.
And a large-scale military parade was held to celebrate the 80th anniversary of the victory of the anti-Japanese war in Beijing on September 3, and state leaders and government representatives from 26 countries, including President Putin in Russia and General Secretary Kim Jong-un in North Korea attended the parade. Many Western countries did not participate. When I watch the parade on You Tube, the soldier’s movements are perfectly synchronized, as if robots or mannequins are marching. Compared to the military parade held in Washington, the United States, on June 14, I really felt like it symbolized a totalitarian state.
■Increase in corporate bankruptcies due to labor shortage, introduction of foreign workers, and the harsh employment situation in China:
According to Tokyo Shoko Research, the number of bankruptcies with liabilities over 10 million yen in the first half of 2025 (from January to June) reached 4,990 cases, marking 1% increase compared to the same period last year, the highest level in 11 years since 2014. The number of 4,000 range has been consistent for 3 consecutive years. Small bankruptcies with liabilities less than 100 million yen have reached 77%, the highest in the past 30 years. And corporate bankruptcies with fewer than 10 employees accounted for 90% of the total, with micro-enterprises with fewer than 5 employees reaching 76% of the total.
The reason for bankruptcy related to labor shortages accounted for 172 cases, the highest number for the first half of the year. Since the first half of 2024, there have been more than 100 cases continuing. While large companies are actively increasing wages, many small and medium-sized enterprises are implementing defensive wage increases, which is putting pressure on their management. The impact of labor shortages is particularly significant in “labor-intensive industries” such as transport industry and temporary staffing industry. For instance, the effective jobs-to-applicants ratio for driver positions in July has reached 2.58 times (an increase of 0.26 points from the previous month and an increase of 0.02 points from the same month last year). Since October 2020, the number has continued to be the double digits for 58 consecutive months. The effective jobs-to-applicants ratio for port cargo handling workers was 5.22 times in the fiscal year 2024, and the effective jobs-to-applicants ratio for automobile mechanics was 4.99 times in the fiscal year 2023. The degree of seriousness is increasing.
Labor shortages are also occurring in various other business sectors. For instance, in the nursing care industry, the effective jobs-to-applicants ratio for helpers has reached 14 times in the fiscal year 2023, indicating that there are almost no applicants for job offers. The reason is that heavy labor is not compensated with adequate wages. The effective jobs-to-applicants ratio for nursery teachers has also exceeded three times, and there have been reports in industries related to inbound tourism of cases where restaurants have suspended evening operations due to a shortage of cooks and serving staff. The number of firefighters has decreased to about one-third of its peak, and there is also an aging trend. Considering the increasingly severe labor shortage in the future, the introduction of foreign workers is inevitable, and how to realize an orderly “society of coexistence” requires urgent national discussion and the need to establish systems and structures.
By the way, in Japan, reflecting the declining birthrate and labor shortages, the employment rate for new graduates (university and high school) is nearly 100%, creating a seller’s market.
However, in the neighboring country, China, young people are facing a tough job market. The reasons are that the real estate industry, which accounts for about 30% of GDP, is holding back on hiring due to the prolonged recession and in 2025, the number of university graduates and doctoral degree holders increased by 0.43 million from the previous year to 12.22 million (around 0.6 million in Japan), reaching the highest number ever. It is necessary for the younger generation in Japan to also be aware of the harsh competitive society that young people in China are placed in.
■September 1 is “Disaster Prevention Day”:
On September 1, 1923, at 11:58 AM, a major earthquake with magnitude of 7.9 (the Great Kanto Earthquake) occurred in the Kanto region. This earthquake caused the extensive damage over a wide area, including Tokyo and Yokohama, resulting in more than 100,000 dead and missing. This day was designated as “Disaster Prevention Day”, calling on the public to prepare for earthquakes, so that the disaster will not be forgotten.
By the way, in the Nankai Trough, extending from offshore Shizuoka prefecture to offshore Miyazaki prefecture, the possibility of a huge earthquake occurring within the next 30 years is estimated to be “around 80%”. When it occurs, it is expected that a giant tsunami will surge onto the Pacific coast. According to a survey by the Cabinet Office, it has been revealed that when a high-priority “alert for a massive earthquake” is issued, the number of residents in municipalities requesting pre-evacuation in preparation for a tsunami exceeds at least 520,000 nationwide. It is not easy to evacuate a large number of people of this scale quickly and smoothly. In particular, measures for the elderly are an issue. Under the spirit of “being prepared eliminates worries” and “self-responsibility”, it is necessary to raise the disaster prevention awareness of the citizens.